The Complete Guide to Outbound Capacity Modeling

Most companies have no idea how much pipeline their outbound team can actually generate.

They set arbitrary quotas. They hire when pipeline dips. They blame reps when numbers miss.

The problem isn’t effort. It’s math.

Why Capacity Modeling Matters

A capacity model answers the most important question in outbound: How much can this team realistically produce?

Without it, you’re guessing. And guessing leads to:

• Unrealistic quotas that burn out reps
• Hiring decisions based on hope, not data
• Finger-pointing when targets miss

With a good model, you can:

• Set achievable quotas backed by math
• Know exactly when to hire (and when not to)
• Identify the specific levers that improve output

The Bottom-Up Approach

Top-down planning (“We need $10M pipeline, so divide by reps”) doesn’t work. It ignores constraints.

Bottom-up planning starts with reality:

• How many hours does a rep actually have?
• How much of that time is spent on outbound activities?
• What are the conversion rates at each stage?

Step 1: Calculate Available Time

Start with a rep’s week:

• 40 hours total
• Minus meetings (8-10 hours)
• Minus admin and tools (5-8 hours)
• Minus training and 1:1s (2-3 hours)

Actual prospecting time: 20-25 hours per week

Most leaders think their reps have 40 hours. They don’t.

Step 2: Determine Activity Capacity

With 20-25 hours, how many quality touchpoints can a rep execute?

This varies by motion:

• High-volume outbound: 80-100 activities/day
• Account-based outbound: 30-50 activities/day
• Enterprise/strategic: 15-25 activities/day

The key word is “quality.” Anyone can blast 200 emails. That’s not the goal.

Step 3: Apply Conversion Rates

Work backwards from meetings:

• Activities to replies (varies by channel, 5-15%)
• Replies to conversations (40-60%)
• Conversations to meetings (30-50%)
• Meetings to qualified opportunities (50-70%)

Multiply through to get activities needed per meeting.

Step 4: Calculate Team Capacity

Individual rep capacity × number of reps = team capacity

But don’t forget ramp. A new rep isn’t at full capacity for 3-6 months.

The Reality Check

After modeling, most teams discover:

1. They’re quota’d 30-50% above realistic capacity
2. They’re losing 40%+ of rep time to non-selling activities
3. Their conversion rates are worse than they thought

This is valuable information. Now you know what to fix.

What to Do With Your Model

If quota exceeds capacity:

• Improve conversion rates (messaging, targeting)
• Increase available time (process improvement, automation)
• Add headcount (last resort, not first)

If capacity exceeds quota:

• Either targets are too conservative
• Or there’s a skills/execution gap to address

Common Mistakes

Mistake 1: Using averages instead of actuals Don’t assume 100 activities/day if your team does 60. Measure reality.

Mistake 2: Ignoring seasonality Q4 holidays, summer vacations, company events all reduce capacity.

Mistake 3: Not accounting for ramp New hires aren’t productive immediately. Build this into the model.

Mistake 4: Setting it and forgetting it Update the model monthly. Conversion rates change. Team size changes.

The Takeaway

Before you hire another SDR, model your capacity.

Before you raise quotas, model your capacity.

Before you blame performance, model your capacity.

The math doesn’t lie. And it’s usually more useful than opinions in a meeting.

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Want help building a capacity model for your team? Book a strategy audit and we’ll build one together.